2021 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win
The 2021 Oscars are here and we are in for an exciting night. Though there are some categories that seem locked up, there are a number that are up in the air and there are always surprises to be had. Here are my final predictions for the 2021 Oscars.
Best Picture
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Nomadland has been a juggernaut all season, picking up what seems to be every award possible. Will that streak end tonight? Probably not. But if there is one movie that will take it down it’s Aaron Sorkin’s sentimental The Trial of the Chicago 7.
- WILL WIN: Nomadland
- SHOULD WIN: Minari
Best Director
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- David Fincher, Mank
- Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
With Nomadland dominating all season, it only makes sense its master behind the camera is dominating as well. I can’t see anyone beating her at this point.
- WILL WIN: Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
- SHOULD WIN: Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Best Actor
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
This race has gotten tighter over the last month, with Anthony Hopkins gaining ground and making it a race against the late Chadwick Boseman. As much as I would love Hopkins to win, Boseman’s win would celebrate not only a great performance but a great career of an actor taken from us too soon.
- WILL WIN: Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SHOULD WIN: Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Best Actress
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Andra Day, United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
The tightest race of the night is one that anyone could win. Mulligan won the Critics Choice, Day won the Golden Globe, Davis won the Screen Actors Guild, and McDormand won the BAFTA. Who’s pulling this one out? McDormand and Davis are recent winners and Davis’ film missed out on Best Picture and Day and Kirby and newcomers, so I’m leaning toward previous-nominee Mulligan.
I really have no idea how this is going to go.
- WILL WIN: Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- SHOULD WIN: Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami…
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- LaKeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Daniel Kaluuya’s monumental performance should walk away with the win here, as he’s won every precursor. Am I a little worried about his co-star, LaKeith Stanfield, taking votes from him and letting someone like Sacha Baron Cohen slide in? A little.
- WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- SHOULD WIN: Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
Though the winner of this category could end up being a surprise like Colman or Bakalova, with her win’s at SAG and BAFTA, I’m going with Youn Yuh-Jung in what will probably be the best speech of the night.
- WILL WIN: Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
- SHOULD WIN: Youn Yuh-Jung, Minari
Best Original Screenplay
- Will Berson and Shaka King, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Aaron Sorkin, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Darius Marder and Abraham Marder, Sound of Metal
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Tough to go against Sorkin, but Fennell’s scorching script is hard to not pick.
- WILL WIN: Promising Young Woman
- SHOULD WIN: Minari
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jena Friedman and Lee Kern, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller, The Father
- Kemp Powers, One Night in Miami…
- Ramin Bahrani, The White Tiger
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
If the night is a Nomadland sweep, Zhao could easily win. But I think the Academy will want to reward The Father somewhere and this would be a nice place to do so.
- WILL WIN: The Father
- SHOULD WIN: The Father
REST OF THE PICKS
Best Cinematography
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
News of the World
Nomadland
The Trial of the Chicago 7
- WILL WIN: Nomadland
- SHOULD WIN: Mank
Best Editing
The Father
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
- WILL WIN: The Trial of the Chicago 7
- SHOULD WIN: THE FATHER
Best Animated Feature Film
Onward
Over the Moon
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
Soul
Wolfwalkers
- WILL WIN: Soul
- SHOULD WIN: Wolfwalkers
Best Production Design
The Father
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
News of the World
Tenet
- WILL WIN: Mank
- SHOULD WIN: Mank
Best Costume Design
Emma
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Mulan
Pinocchio
- WILL WIN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SHOULD WIN: Emma
Best Documentary Feature
Collective
Crip Camp
The Mole Agent
My Octopus Teacher
Time
- WILL WIN: My Octopus Teacher
- SHOULD WIN: Time
Best Sound
Greyhound
Mank
News of the World
Soul
Sound of Metal
- WILL WIN: Sound of Metal
- SHOULD WIN: Sound of Metal
Best Visual Effects
Love and Monsters
The Midnight Sky
Mulan
The One and Only Ivan
Tenet
- WILL WIN: Tenet
- SHOULD WIN: Tenet
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Emma
Hillbilly Elegy
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Pinocchio
- WILL WIN: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- SHOULD WIN: Mank
Best International Film
Another Round
Better Days
Collective
The Man Who Sold His Skin
Quo Vadis, Aida
- WILL WIN: Another Round
- SHOULD WIN: Another Round
Best Original Score
Da 5 Bloods
Mank
Minari
News of the World
Soul
- WILL WIN: Soul
- SHOULD WIN: Mank
Best Original Song
“Fight for You,” from Judas and the Black Messiah
“Hear My Voice,” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
“Husavik,” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
“Io Sì (Seen),” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
“Speak Now,” from One Night in Miami…
- WILL WIN: “Speak Now,” from One Night in Miami…
- SHOULD WIN: “Husavik,” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Best Animated Short Film
Burrow
Genius Loci
If Anything Happens I Love You
Opera
Yes-People
- WILL WIN: If Anything Happens I Love You
- SHOULD WIN: Burrow
Best Live-Action Short Film
Feeling Through
The Letter Room
The Present
Two Distant Strangers
White Eye
- WILL WIN: Two Distant Strangers
- SHOULD WIN: The Letter Room
Best Documentary Short
Collette
A Concerto is a Conversation
Do Not Split
Hunger Ward
A Love Song for Latasha
- WILL WIN: A Concerto is a Conversation
- SHOULD WIN: Collette
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